Market Alert: Why 6239.25 Could Be the Ceiling for ES This Month
By Julie Wade, Managing Member – J Auto Trading Strategies, LLC
Hey traders,
The ES futures market is testing a pivotal level—Monthly PT2: 6239.25—and the evidence points to major players like JP Morgan Chase being fully hedged at this mark. This isn’t random; it’s likely a deliberate options and futures risk management wall, and with quarter-end looming, they’re highly motivated to hold the line.
Here’s the Breakdown:
If 10,000 contracts are hedged, each point move equates to ~$3.12 million in notional exposure (at $50 x 6239.25 per contract). That’s a staggering ~$62.4 billion total notional value at this level.
A breakout above 6239.25 would force a costly recalibration of Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly hedges— a move institutions will fight to avoid, especially today, with Monday being the last full trading day of the month and quarter.
Key Context:
We’re at 68% of the Monthly range—deep into resistance territory.
With Friday’s time pressure, a hedge unwind is a low-probability, high-cost event.
This sets the stage for mean reversion, gamma pinning, or volatility compression. Expect institutional efforts to cap price here. Stay vigilant and position accordingly.
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Julie Wade
J Auto Trading Strategies, LLC
Think It 》Trade It 》Automate It
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